Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.017783 0.020167 0.022760 0.025788 0.029232 0.033027 0.037531
2025-05-04 0.014271 0.017599 0.021536 0.026541 0.032747 0.040202 0.049855
2025-05-11 0.011954 0.015600 0.020166 0.026316 0.034404 0.044707 0.058876
2025-05-18 0.010421 0.014242 0.019256 0.026336 0.036109 0.049177 0.068064
2025-05-25 0.009114 0.012960 0.018215 0.025943 0.037068 0.052582 0.075994
2025-06-01 0.008308 0.012244 0.017818 0.026322 0.039038 0.057455 0.086357
2025-06-08 0.007485 0.011393 0.017111 0.026131 0.040089 0.061016 0.095052
2025-06-15 0.007030 0.011028 0.017060 0.026876 0.042565 0.066863 0.107733
2025-06-22 0.006253 0.010083 0.016023 0.025969 0.042342 0.068465 0.113780
2025-06-29 0.005705 0.009441 0.015391 0.025626 0.042953 0.071392 0.122193
2025-07-06 0.005120 0.008681 0.014495 0.024750 0.042575 0.072616 0.127782
2025-07-13 0.004926 0.008555 0.014624 0.025601 0.045185 0.079068 0.143021
2025-07-20 0.004695 0.008351 0.014617 0.026237 0.047515 0.085313 0.158650
2025-07-27 0.004503 0.008199 0.014684 0.027012 0.050168 0.092383 0.176535
2025-08-03 0.004178 0.007774 0.014229 0.026782 0.050934 0.096048 0.188303
2025-08-10 0.003920 0.007451 0.013926 0.026802 0.052159 0.100656 0.202321
2025-08-17 0.003632 0.007044 0.013430 0.026402 0.052523 0.103623 0.213319
2025-08-24 0.003467 0.006861 0.013342 0.026788 0.054468 0.109846 0.231569
2025-08-31 0.003249 0.006551 0.012982 0.026593 0.055208 0.113698 0.245197
2025-09-07 0.003153 0.006480 0.013086 0.027352 0.057984 0.121959 0.269100
2025-09-14 0.002889 0.006041 0.012413 0.026428 0.057111 0.122472 0.275971
2025-09-21 0.002705 0.005754 0.012026 0.026079 0.057440 0.125570 0.288929
2025-09-28 0.002485 0.005373 0.011415 0.025188 0.056491 0.125781 0.295246